Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 06/1148Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 580 km/s at 05/2246Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/0357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/0802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Jan, 09 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jan 142
  Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 145/155/160
  90 Day Mean        06 Jan 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jan  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  007/008-015/018-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%20%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%50%30%

All times in UTC

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