Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 March 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/1333Z from Region 1982 (S11W86). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 01/0634Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 88 pfu at 28/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (02 Mar), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Mar 165
  Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        01 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Mar  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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