Viewing archive of Friday, 28 February 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 28/0048Z from Region 1991 (S25E38). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 543 km/s at 28/0650Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 27/2242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/2128Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu at 28/0845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (01 Mar), are likely to cross threshold on day two (02 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton99%70%50%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Feb 171
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  015/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  014/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm25%05%05%

All times in UTC

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