Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14
Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 137 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 138/135/130 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 006/005-018/026-028/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 35% | 45% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 60% | 35% |
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