Viewing archive of Friday, 15 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0658Z from Region 1692 (N09W03). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar,
17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
517 km/s at 15/0500Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/0719Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/0619Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 123 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/015-028/037-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 70% | 40% |
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