Viewing archive of Friday, 16 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 flare observed at 16/1539Z from the northeast limb. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (511 km/s). A long duration C1 flare from Region 1613 (S23W05) occurred at 16/0751Z with an associated 24 degree filament eruption centered near S39E22 at 16/0720Z. Another filament eruption was observed from the East limb seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 16/0648 UTC. Analysis of SOHO/LASCO C2 suggested these eruptions would not be geoeffective. Yesterdays general trend of decreasing size and complexity continued among all active regions, leaving Region 1610 (S22W63) as the only beta-gamma type group on the visible disk. However, flux emergence was observed in other portions of the disk. New Region 1617 (S18W18) was numbered today, and emerging flux was noted near N12E35 on SDO/HMI magnetogram loops and later reported by Holloman Solar Observatory There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an isolated moderate event on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 16/1112Z, but generally remained in the low to mid 400 km/s range under the waning influence of a weak negative coronal hole high speed stream. Bz was generally -4nT or greater through the period. No significant discontinuities were observed in the measured variables.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov). The field is expected to be occasionally unsettled over the next three days as another coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 138
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 141/145/145
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm35%20%05%

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