Viewing archive of Friday, 2 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class flares. All the regions on the disk were
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days with just a chance for an isolated
C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) steadily weakened throughout the
period from initial values around 10 nT to day-end values around 3
nT. The z-component of the IMF (Bz) turned northwards at about 0300Z
and solar wind velocity was at nominal values between 300 to 320
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (03-05
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 097 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 017/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 007/007-006/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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