Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1585 (S20E12) has been the most active region
producing multiple B-class events. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (07-09 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
remain at nominal levels, however energetic particle measurments by
the EPAM sensor, indicate a CME is currently traveling towards
Earth.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on day one (07
October). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm periods is expected on days two and three (08-09
October) as the 05 October CME is forecasted to arrive.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 099 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 098/098/095 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-015/018-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 35% |
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