Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Numerous weak
C-class events were observed during the past 24 hours, mostly from
Regions 1575 (N07W73) and 1577 (N09W54). New Region 1583 (N13W75)
emerged on the disk as a simple bipolar group. No significant
changes were observed from the remainder of the disk and limb. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the forecast period (30 September - 02 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 325
km/s to near 275 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. At about
29/0100Z, a solar sector boundary crossing from a negative (toward)
to a positive (away) orientation was observed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels through about midday on
day one (30 September). By late on day one, active levels with a
chance for minor to major storm periods are expected due to the
arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed early on 28 September.
On day two (01 October), continued minor to major storm conditions
are expected early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods as
effects from the CME wane. Predominately quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (02 October).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 136 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 018/035-018/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 70% | 20% |
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