Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C3/SF flare at 0039Z from Region 1554 (N15W94).
Region 1560 (N03W05) remains the largest on the disk and the most
complex with a magnetic configuration of a beta-gamma.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
41 pfu at 1925Z, and remained above threshold at the time of this
report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 2 September. Activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME.
High latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels on 3
September. On day 3 (4 September), activity is expected to decrease
to mostly unsettled conditions as CME effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 80% | 60% | 30% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 146 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 007/018-020/030-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 10% |
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