Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1532 (S18W64) produced a
few nominal C-class x-ray events. No CMEs were observed and no new
active regions were numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (6-8 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (6-7 August). Unsettled to
active conditions are forecast for day 3 (8 August), due to an
anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 4 August.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 134 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 006/005-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
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