Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1548 (N18E18) produced the largest event of the period, a B6/Sf flare at 22/1658Z. The remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. A full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 21/2024Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 884 km/s. STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be a back-sided event and is not expected to be geoeffective. SDO/AIA 193 imagery showed a filament eruption in the vicinity of plage Region 1549 (S18W72) at approximately 22/0930Z. A CME was subsequently observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 22/1012Z, and in LASCO C3 imagery at 22/1118Z. Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness of this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days (23-25 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for days 1-3 (23-25 August).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 095
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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