Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A few low level B-class
flares were observed. Three new regions were numbered: Region 1550
(S11W81) a Bxo-beta type group; Region 1551 (N13W14) a Bxo-beta type
group; and Region 1552 (S18E54) an Hsx-alpha type group. The
remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. Several CMEs were
observed however none appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (22-24 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for days 1-3 (22-24 August).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 094 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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