Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1512 (S15E11) and 1513
(S15E58) each produced low-level C-class flares as well as
occasional optical subflares. Region 1512 showed spot and penumbral
growth in its intermediate portion along with an increase in
magnetic complexity and was classified as a Dki/beta-gamma. Region
1513 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cso/beta. New Regions 1514 (S16E55) and 1515
(S16E70) were numbered and were classified as a Bxo/beta and
Cso/beta, respectively. Region 1515 produced occasional optical
subflares during the latter half of the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (28 - 30 June) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with unsettled to active periods
detected at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (28 June). Field activity is expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (29 June) with a
chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). A further increase to unsettled to active levels is
expected on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due
to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 106 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 006/007-009/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 40% |
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