Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1512 (S16E25, Dai/Beta)
was in a gradual growth phase during the period and produced a C1
x-ray flare as well as occasional optical subflares. New Region 1513
(N16E71, Hax/Alpha) was numbered and produced a C1/Sf flare. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (27 - 29 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. This activity was
associated with a minor increase in solar wind speeds (peak 496 km/s
at 26/0455Z) coupled with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz
(maximum southward deflection -7 nT at 26/0113Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (27 - 28
June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal
hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 099 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 007/005-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
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