Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1386 (S18E64) produced
a C5/Sf at 24/0839Z. Region 1376 (rotating off the West Limb)
produced a long duration C4 flare at 24/1236Z. Both were
accompanied by CMEs which are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(25-27 December)
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (25-27
December).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 143 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 000/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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