Viewing archive of Monday, 29 August 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class x-ray flares
occurred. The largest flare was a C3 at 29/0721Z from an area just
beyond the northeast limb. Visible disk regions were either stable
or declining. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (30 August - 01 September) with a chance for
more C-class activity from the area just beyond the northeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (30 August
- 01 September).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 101 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 098/095/095 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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