Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 August 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 1281 (S21E64)
produced occasional optical subflares during the period, two of
which were associated with B-class x-ray flares. No significant
activity was noted in the remaining spot groups. A weak Type II
radio sweep occurred at 28/0420Z, likely associated with a filament
disappearance from beyond the west limb. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (29 - 31 August) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 August).
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (30 - 31
August).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 101 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 100/098/095 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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