Viewing archive of Monday, 25 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. A
B7 x-ray event was observed at 25/1628Z from Region 1260 (N20E58).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (25-27 July). Region 1260 is most
likely region for C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind
velocities observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream at about 24/2200Z. Wind speed reached
650 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for isolated active conditions on day one (26 July). Day two (27
July) is expected to be predominately quiet. Day three (28 July) is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods, with the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream late in the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 087 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 084/086/086 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 008/010-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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