Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
New region 1260 (N20E71) was numbered today, and is initially
classified as an Axx type spot group. Region 1254 (S23W67) and
Region 1259 (N25W10) both decreased in area and remained quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for C-class activity for the next three
days (25-27 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued decrease
in solar wind velocity to about 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (25 July). Quiet to unsettled with a
slight chance for isolated active conditions are expected on days
two and three (26-27). The activity is forecast due to the expected
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 086 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 085/084/084 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 005/005-009/009-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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