Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1243 (N16W59) produced a C1 event at 07/0243Z. New Region 1245
(N15E58) was numbered overnight and is classified as a Cso-beta type
group. Both regions produced several B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (08-10 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (08 July). Quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on
day two (09 July) due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). Conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet on day three (10 July) as the effects from the CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 086 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 088/090/090 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 007/007-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 06% | 01% |
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