Viewing archive of Friday, 10 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare occurred at
10/1751Z and appeared to originate from old Region 1226 (S22,
L=037), which crossed the west limb yesterday. Region 1234 (S16E43)
produced an isolated B-class flare and remained a simply-structured
Bxo-type group. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (11 - 13 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels during the period.
Active levels occurred at Boulder during 09/2100 - 10/0000Z
associated with increased solar wind speeds and IMF Bt, coupled with
a period of southward IMF Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred
after 10/0000Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) occurred at
10/0855Z (15 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was in response
to the arrival of the halo-coronal mass ejection observed on 07
June. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (11 -
13 June) with a chance for brief active levels during 11 - 12 June
due to a coronal hole high-speed stream, expected to commence on 11
June.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 087 Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 086/086/086 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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