Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 05 2220 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2011 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1204 (N17W00) produced a B8 x-ray event at 05/1756Z. New
Region 1207 (N24E40) was numbered today as a simple bi-polar group.
The remaining active regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (06-08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the solar wind
speed remained steady at about 400 km/s during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one through three (06-08
May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 105 Predicted 06 May-08 May 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 05 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 005/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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