Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been very low during the past 24
hours. Region 1204 (N17E13) produced a B9 x-ray event at 04/0144Z.
An eruptive filament was observed in the vicinity of Region 1205
(N14E23) at 04/1656Z. The remaining active regions were quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (05-07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a steady decrease in
solar wind velocity from 600 km/s to around 425 km/s as the recent
coronal hole high speed stream subsided. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet with isolated unsettled periods
for days one through three (05-07 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 107 Predicted 05 May-07 May 107/110/110 90 Day Mean 04 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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