Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Occasional C-class x-ray
flares occurred throughout the period, the largest of which was a
C6/Sf at 01/0413Z from Region 1164 (N25E19). This region grew in
size and magnetic complexity, ending the period as an Ekc type with
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions
were quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with an increasing chance for an M-class x-ray flare from Region
1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm activity
levels during the period. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft
began to rise from 310 km/s at approximately 01/0500Z and ended the
period near 500 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field turned south coincident with the increase in solar
wind speed, temperature, and density. These events suggest the
arrival of a corotating interaction region between 01/05-12Z in
advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. Bz averaged -10 nT
for several hours, bringing two periods of minor storm levels at
middle latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for active
conditions over the next three days (2-4 March). A slight chance
for isolated minor storm periods exists on days one and two (2-3
March).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 111 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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