Viewing archive of Monday, 7 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1153 (N15W56) produced several low level B-class
events. Region 1153 showed an increase in areal coverage, sunspot
count, and magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight change for C-class activity for the
next three days (08-10 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(08-10 February).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 082 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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