Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (07-09 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly unsettled with an
isolated active period from 06/0600Z-0900Z. This enhanced activity
is due to the effects of a waning coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (07 February) as the
effects of a CH HSS continue to wane. Predominantly quiet levels are
expected on days two and three (08-09 February).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 080 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 080/078/078 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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