Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. New region 1147 (N24E80)
produced a C1 flare at 15/1419Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (16 - 18 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at Boulder between 15/1200 - 1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (16 - 18
January).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 080 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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