Viewing archive of Friday, 14 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Old region 1138 (N12, L=323),
which has yet to rotate onto the visible disk, produced a long
duration C1 x-ray event at 14/0330Z associated with a CME off the
northeast limb. Region 1145 (N16W25) redeveloped spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (15 - 17 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at mid-latitudes between 14/1500 - 1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 January)
as the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) become geoeffective. Quiet levels are expected on days two and
three (16 -17 January) as effects from the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 079 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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