Viewing archive of Monday, 13 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1134 (N19W33) and
1135 (N18E56) were numbered during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (14-16 December). There is a
slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
in response to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to return to mostly quiet conditions for days one and two
(14-15 December). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day
three (16 December) as a recurrent coronal high speed stream rotates
into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 088 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 090/088/088 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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