Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A filament eruption
occurred in the southwest quadrant and was first observed in
STEREO-A imagery at about 12/0330Z. Coincident with the eruption was
a long duration B4 x-ray event that peaked at 12/0628Z. During the
past 24 hours, three separate CMEs were observed in LASCO C2
imagery. The first was observed departing the southwest limb at
12/0412Z. Subsequent CMEs were observed departing from the northeast
limb at 12/0524Z and from the southeast limb at 12/0612Z. The
remainder of the disk and limb was largely unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class event from Region 1131
(N31W58), for the next 3 days (13-15 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. At approximately
12/1500Z, the field became unsettled to active in response to the
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods,
for Day 1 (13 December). A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for Days 2 and 3 (14-15 December) as the coronal hole high
speed stream departs. At this time, the three CMEs observed in the
past 24 hours are not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 089 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 090/090/088 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 007/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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