Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a single B-class flare, a B4 at 1117Z from Region 1131 (N31W47).
Regions 1131 and 1133 (N15W22) were generally quiet and stable
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the 1st day (12 December) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels are
expected to prevail for the 2nd and 3rd days (13-14 December).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 087 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 088/089/090 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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