Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 1126 (S32E20)
produced a few small B-class flares. New Region 1127 (N25E71)
rotated onto the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance of a C-class flare from Region 1126
over the next three days (17-19 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17-19
November).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 092 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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