Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1126 (S31E07) has grown is sunspot number and areal
coverage but remained quiet and stable. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (18-20 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a decrease in
solar wind speed from 540km/s to 440km/s as effects of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream subside. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (18-20
November).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 091 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 090/090/088 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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