Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events were observed throughout the period,
the largest being a C4.7/Sf from Region 1123 (S22E03) at 11/0724Z.
Associated with this event were discrete radio emissions at 245 MHz
and a partial-halo CME observed in LASCO imagery at 11/0824Z and
STEREO A at 11/0809Z. New Region 1125 (N19E34) was numbered early in
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(12-14 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. At
about 11/0200Z, signatures at the ACE satellite indicated an
increase in temperature, density and wind velocity. The Bz component
of the interplanetary field (IMF) occasionally turned southward
reaching a maximum deflection of -9 nT at 11/1208Z. The Bt component
of the IMF reached a maximum of 12 nT at 11/0304Z. These
disturbances are believed to be the result of a slow moving CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(12-14 November).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 085 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 085/085/084 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 007/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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