Viewing archive of Friday, 15 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions
1112 (S19W15), 1113 (N17E50), and newly numbered 1115 (S28E63) each
produced isolated low-level B-class flares. Regions 1113 and 1115
were both H-type spots and exhibited no significant changes. Region
1112 showed minor spot growth during the period. A slow CME
(estimated plane-of-sky velocity 140 km/s) was evident in SOHO and
STEREO coronagraph images - first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 at
14/1348Z. The CME had a northwestward trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (16 - 18 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. However, ACE solar
wind data indicated a CME passage around 15/0300Z, likely associated
with the filament eruption observed on 10 October. Solar wind
changes associated with the CME passage included increased
velocities (277 to 354 km/s), increased IMF Bt (peak 09 nT at
15/0919Z), and intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum
deflection -07 nT at 15/1725Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for active levels, on day 1 (16 October) as the CME passage
continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during
days 2 and 3 (17 - 18 October).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 082 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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