Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 1121 (S18W48)
produced an M5/1N flare at 06/1536Z. Associated with this event were
discrete radio emissions ranging from 4,995 MHz - 15,400 MHz, as
well as a 100 sfu Tenflare observed at 06/1534Z. Region 1121 was
classified as an Eai spot group with a beta magnetic classification.
Region 1120 (N41W13) continued to decay. New Region 1122 (N13W02)
was classified as a Cso spot group with a beta magnetic
classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. M-class flares are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 November). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are
expected on days two and three (08-09 November).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 089 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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