Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. New region 1094
(N25W57) was numbered today. Region 1094 is a Cso beta sunspot
group. Region 1093 (N11E58) produced several B-class flares during
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Regions 1093
and 1094.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels in
response to CMEs observed on 01 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet with an isolated chance of unsettled
levels at high latitudes during the next three days (06 - 08 August).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 083 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 026/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 009/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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