Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 29 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N14E63)
produced a pair of B-class flares, the largest a B7 event at
29/1847Z. Region 1089 (S24W62) has been quiet and stable while
decreasing in area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(30 July-1 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
conditions on days 1 and 2 (30-31 July). Conditions are forecast to
return to mostly quiet on day 3 (1 August).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 085 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 087/087/085 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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