Viewing archive of Friday, 2 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 02 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1084 (S20W06) produced a B1 flare at 01/2054Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low throughout the forecast period (03-05 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for an
isolated active period on day 1 (03 July). Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for days 2 and 3 (04-05 July) as the effects from the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 073 Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 073/074/074 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 006/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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