Viewing archive of Friday, 28 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 28 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 1072 (S15W79)
produced a B1 x-ray event at 27/2315Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. An interplanetary
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 28/0203Z. Boulder
magnetometer observed a 33 nT sudden impulse at 28/0259Z, the
activity is most likely due to the arrival of the CME observed on
May 23.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately unsettled levels with a chance for
active periods on day one (29 May) as the CMEs from 23-24 May
continue to be geo-effective. Unsettled to active levels are likely
are on days two and three (30-31 May) due to the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. In addition, there is a
slight chance for isolated minor storm periods during the high speed
stream interval.
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 073 Predicted 29 May-31 May 073/073/072 90 Day Mean 28 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 018/020-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 55% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 50% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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