Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 27 2221 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No flares were
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to active with a chance for
minor storm levels on day 1 (28 May). Unsettled to active levels are
expected on day 2 (29 May). Activity on days one and two is forecast
due to the expected arrival of the two CMEs observed on 23 and 24
May. Unsettled to active, with a chance for minor storm levels, is
expected on day three (30 May) as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 072 Predicted 28 May-30 May 073/073/075 90 Day Mean 27 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 020/020-018/020-020/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 55% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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