Viewing archive of Monday, 19 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless. A
CME was noted on SOHO and STEREO imagery on the southwest limb at
approximately 18/2300Z. The source of this activity is unknown,
however, it may be related to a prominence located just behind the
southwest limb. In addition, a second CME was observed at 19/1754Z
on the SOHO C2 image. This activity is likely associated with a
filament that lifted off the NW limb (approx. N40W85).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (20-22 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day one (20 April). Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected for days two and
three (21-22 April). Activity is expected due to possible effects
from a weak CME observed on 15 April and two coronal hole high speed
streams rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 075 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 079/080/082 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 005/005-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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