Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. A very long duration B1.3 X-ray event was observed at
18/0218Z. The possible source region of this event was from an area
of surging on the east limb between N13 and N27 as observed in
GOES-14 SXI imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels. A slight chance for C-class activity exists as
the new area of interest on the NE limb rotates onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (19 - 20 April). Activity
is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active periods, on day three (21 April) as two coronal hole wind
streams rotate into a geoeffective position. These coronal holes
are currently located, one each, in the NE and SE quadrants of the
disk and generally lie along a similar longitudinal line.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 075 Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 078/079/080 90 Day Mean 18 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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