Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A single B-class flare
was observed at 0443Z from Region 1062 (S18W20). Region 1062 has
grown in size but is still a small bipolar sunspot group. A
filament eruption with an associated partial-halo CME (plane-of-sky
speed 540 km/s) was observed on the northwest limb at approximately
0908Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (14-16 April) with a slight chance for
an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for days one and two (14-15 April).
Activity is expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for an
active period on day three (16 April) due to the arrival of the
partial-halo CME observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 075 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 077/077/079 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 018/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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