Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1054 (N15W37) was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area. Region 1056 (N17E46) was numbered
today and is magnetically classified as a Beta.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next
three days (18-20 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes for the
past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period at high latitudes
between 0300Z - 0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft showed elevated velocities around 520 km/s and densities
around (1-3 p/cc). These signatures are consistent with a coronal
hole high-speed stream, presumably from the northward extension of
the southern polar coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (18 March)
due to the arrival of a partial-halo CME observed on 13 March.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on days two
and three (19-20 March).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 087 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 087/087/088 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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