Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 March 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1054 (N16W53) and
1056 (N18E34) remain stable and quiet. Both remain at a Beta
magnetic classification and have produced only low level B-class
flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with only a slight chance for a C-class flare
during the next 3 days (19-21 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with a brief period of
unsettled conditions between 03-06Z. Solar wind speeds have
decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next 3 days (19-21 March).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 086 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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