Viewing archive of Friday, 2 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 02 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1057 (N16W59) and Region 1059 (S23W03) both remain stable and quiet. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The ACE spacecraft indicated a shock around 02/0635Z. Solar wind speed increased from around 435 km/s to 540 km/s, density increased, and the IMF sustained several hours of southward Bz. The Boulder magnetometer observed a 19 nT sudden impulse at 02/0721Z. The exact source for the activity is not known, however, it may have resulted from the CME observed on 30 March.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions for the next three days (03-05 April).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Apr 076
  Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        02 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Apr  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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