Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 March 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1054 (N14E01) produced two C-class flares. The C-class
event at 13/2349Z was a long duration C1.5 SF flare associated with
a partial halo CME and a sympathetic disappearing filament. Region
1054 has shown little growth and still magnetically classified as a
Beta-Gamma. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (15-17 March).
C-flares are likely from Region 1054.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(15-16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and
a solar sector boundary crossing. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels on day three (17 March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 089 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 089/090/091 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 007/007-007/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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