Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 March 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 13 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1054 (N15E15) showed growth and is now magnetically classified as a Beta-Gamma. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the next three days (14-16 March). C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on the first day (14 March) and then at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day two and three (15-16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and solar sector boundary crossing.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 092
  Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  092/093/094
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  003/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  005/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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